Football Match Predictor

Select a league, pick two clubs from the map or the dropdowns, and get an instant ML-powered win probability prediction.

Select a league above, then pick teams from the map or the dropdowns below

Under the hood

Five separate logistic regression models — one per league — each trained with strict temporal validation so every prediction uses only what was known before kickoff.

Leagues

142

Clubs tracked

12,428

Matches analysed

49%

Avg test accuracy

Per-league accuracy

Up to 52% accuracy. Across 12,428 real matches, temporally validated.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Premier League47%

🇪🇸La Liga49%

🇩🇪Bundesliga52%

🇮🇹Serie A50%

🇫🇷Ligue 145%

23 features, 5 models

Pure form, nothing else. No injuries, no transfers, no weather — just the numbers teams put on the pitch.

Points per game — Last 5 and last 10 matches
Goals scored & conceded — Both 5 and 10 game windows
Goal difference — Per game, 5 and 10 game windows
Composite comparisons — Head-to-head form gaps (5 features)
Rest / fatigue proxy — Days since last match

Features are computed independently for home and away, then compared with difference features — giving the model 23 inputs per fixture.

Bundesliga — model performance

Accuracy through the 2025/26 season. Tested on matches the model had never seen before.

Beats the baseline

52% test accuracy. 3% lower log-loss than a majority-class baseline, across 2,142 Bundesliga matches.

52%

ML model

80%

Home-win baseline

Temporal validation

No data leakage. Each feature snapshot uses only matches played before the fixture date. The test season was never in the training set.

Train: all seasons before the test season
Test: the most recent completed full season
Snapshots computed match-by-match in chronological order